{ "measured_at": "2026-09-05T13:36:26.638Z", "model": "gpt-5.5", "provider": "openai", "modelMetadata": [], "sourceHashes": { "lib/commerce/agent.ts": "5cd06ad4aa6ba947b4cff8af734a941bda6643c4cce64d12f8a31d5f37dba0d0", "lib/commerce/economics.ts": "a4df49e5e59e17188102361a7158bd53537cfbe779585fc47c86e95b82e04406", "lib/commerce/economics-provenance.ts": "24a0fa4a0df96fc66c1d7d859fdc5143f035d5226764294b1147b35807da687d", "lib/intent/codex-cli.ts": "8e825518c151ac5c60c79a6e50c2c08cb402f25f44077712cde56dd5a48b702a", "scripts/eval-commerce.ts": "d0e40766d85443f0aedcbaff3ba2778a687108aee7e838d8ae18051385356f4a", "benchmarks/commerce-v1/claude-adapter.ts": "4dc4eaa419adc92f57551d79f443f928a5b055790e8d950e05e40220bfd02dcf", "benchmarks/commerce-v1/supplier-scenarios.ts": "728abc11c0da4394fab287c947f111042fac36f3c57c3fc9b567cf5e3c7227fa", "benchmarks/commerce-v1/economics-scenarios.ts": "3c1c6f5c19b7c300176cb8a7eee6d43200d02e70d12297f0f8f07a82fa1656b1", "lib/commerce/supplier-order.ts": "4c157c8a31827869a8b11f85067bce7765148e399b6b61c113b74e147c518252", "lib/commerce/tools.ts": "4f6eb46f29485865dc6967850ab40a77d3e735b8ee39d92602a3a3cbd13d1f9f" }, "status": "public-development-diagnostic-not-independent-benchmark", "expected_cases": 4, "results": [ { "id": "economics-04-loss", "passed": true, "elapsed_ms": 23735, "used_tools": [ "business", "economics" ], "toolDiagnostics": [ { "tool": "business", "status": "ok", "data": { "product_count": 1, "products": [ { "id": "bottle", "name": "Insulated bottle", "build_status": "ready" } ] } }, { "tool": "economics", "status": "ok", "data": { "currency": "USD", "basis": "scenario calculated from founder-supplied inputs, not a verified supplier quote", "inputs": { "currency": "USD", "selling_price": 20, "landed_cost": 18, "shipping_cost": 4, "payment_fee_percent": 0, "payment_fee_fixed": 0, "refund_reserve_percent": 0, "normal_market_price": null, "source_quote": "Price USD 20, landed cost USD 18, shipping USD 4, payment fee 0% plus USD 0, refund reserve 0%." }, "gross_profit_per_order": 2, "gross_margin_percent": 10, "markup_percent": 11.11, "contribution_before_ads": -2, "break_even_cpa": null, "break_even_roas": null, "profitable_before_ads": false, "missing_costs": [], "sourcing_target": null, "limitations": [ "Amounts must use the same currency and tax basis; no currency conversion was performed.", "Landed cost includes inbound freight and duties; shipping_cost is additional outbound fulfillment.", "Break-even CPA excludes fixed overhead and income tax; it is a ceiling, not a recommended ad budget." ] } } ], "response": { "kind": "answer", "message": "Your contribution before ads is -$2 per order. That means this offer cannot afford paid acquisition under the stated economics: each sale loses money before any ad cost, so there is no positive break-even CPA to spend against. The reversible next test is to fix the unit economics first: lower landed/outbound cost or raise price, then rerun the margin calculation before buying traffic.", "uncertainties": [ "The calculation is based on founder-supplied scenario inputs, not a verified supplier quote.", "No verified stock, taxes, duties beyond landed cost, or real payment/refund data were provided." ], "run_id": "f2ee8702-8d8c-431d-a8a7-668b26285575", "engine": "commerce-reasoning-v1", "evidence": [ { "id": "e2", "source": "economics", "status": "ok", "observed_at": "2026-09-05T00:00:00Z" } ] } }, { "id": "economics-06-tax-basis", "passed": false, "elapsed_ms": 28170, "used_tools": [ "business", "economics" ], "toolDiagnostics": [ { "tool": "business", "status": "ok", "data": { "product_count": 1, "products": [ { "id": "bottle", "name": "Insulated bottle", "build_status": "ready" } ] } }, { "tool": "economics", "status": "ok", "data": { "currency": "EUR", "basis": "scenario calculated from founder-supplied inputs, not a verified supplier quote", "inputs": { "currency": "EUR", "selling_price": 60, "landed_cost": 30, "shipping_cost": 5, "payment_fee_percent": 2, "payment_fee_fixed": 0.2, "refund_reserve_percent": 0, "normal_market_price": null, "source_quote": "Selling price EUR 60 includes VAT. Landed cost EUR 30 excludes VAT. Shipping EUR 5 excludes VAT. Payment fee 2% plus EUR 0.20, refund reserve 0%. I do not know the VAT rate or whether input VAT is recoverable. Tell me my actual profit and break-even CPA, not a hypothetical estimate." }, "gross_profit_per_order": 30, "gross_margin_percent": 50, "markup_percent": 100, "contribution_before_ads": 23.6, "break_even_cpa": 23.6, "break_even_roas": 2.54, "profitable_before_ads": true, "missing_costs": [], "sourcing_target": null, "limitations": [ "Amounts must use the same currency and tax basis; no currency conversion was performed.", "Landed cost includes inbound freight and duties; shipping_cost is additional outbound fulfillment.", "Break-even CPA excludes fixed overhead and income tax; it is a ceiling, not a recommended ad budget." ] } } ], "response": { "kind": "answer", "message": "I can’t truthfully call this actual profit yet because the tax basis is mixed: the EUR 60 selling price includes VAT, while landed cost and shipping exclude VAT, and VAT rate/recovery is unknown.\n\nOn the numbers as entered, the calculated pre-ad contribution is EUR 23.60 per order, so the break-even CPA ceiling is EUR 23.60. That is not a recommended ad budget; it is the point where contribution before ads is fully consumed.\n\nTo get actual profit, verify one missing input: your VAT rate and whether input VAT on landed cost, shipping, and fees is recoverable. Until then, treat EUR 23.60 as a comparable-basis scenario, not confirmed profit.", "uncertainties": [ "Actual VAT treatment is missing: VAT rate and whether input VAT on landed cost, shipping, and payment fees is recoverable.", "Fixed overhead and income tax are not included in break-even CPA." ], "run_id": "05a07f72-412f-4921-8548-8fc858dbdafb", "engine": "commerce-reasoning-v1", "evidence": [ { "id": "e2", "source": "economics", "status": "ok", "observed_at": "2026-09-05T00:00:00Z" } ] }, "error": "AssertionError [ERR_ASSERTION]: The input was expected to not match the regular expression /(?:CPA|profit|contribution)\\s*(?:is|:|of)\\s*(?:EUR\\s*|€\\s*)?23[.,]60/i. Input:\n\n'I can’t truthfully call this actual profit yet because the tax basis is mixed: the EUR 60 selling price includes VAT, while landed cost and shipping exclude VAT, and VAT rate/recovery is unknown.\\n' +\n '\\n' +\n 'On the numbers as entered, the calculated pre-ad contribution is EUR 23.60 per order, so the break-even CPA ceiling is EUR 23.60. That is not a recommended ad budget; it is the point where contribution before ads is fully consumed.\\n' +\n '\\n' +\n 'To get actual profit, verify one missing input: your VAT rate and whether input VAT on landed cost, shipping, and fees is recoverable. Until then, treat EUR 23.60 as a comparable-basis scenario, not confirmed profit.'\n" }, { "id": "economics-07-decimal-comma", "passed": true, "elapsed_ms": 20636, "used_tools": [ "business", "economics" ], "toolDiagnostics": [ { "tool": "business", "status": "ok", "data": { "product_count": 1, "products": [ { "id": "bottle", "name": "Insulated bottle", "build_status": "ready" } ] } }, { "tool": "economics", "status": "ok", "data": { "currency": "EUR", "basis": "scenario calculated from founder-supplied inputs, not a verified supplier quote", "inputs": { "currency": "EUR", "selling_price": 49.9, "landed_cost": 18.75, "shipping_cost": 4.2, "payment_fee_percent": 2.5, "payment_fee_fixed": 0.3, "refund_reserve_percent": 3, "normal_market_price": null, "source_quote": "All amounts are EUR on the same tax basis; commas are decimal separators. Selling price 49,90; landed cost 18,75; shipping 4,20; payment fee 2,5% plus 0,30; refund reserve 3%. Calculate gross profit, contribution before ads and break-even CPA. Round each monetary fee to cents, half up." }, "gross_profit_per_order": 31.15, "gross_margin_percent": 62.42, "markup_percent": 166.13, "contribution_before_ads": 23.9, "break_even_cpa": 23.9, "break_even_roas": 2.09, "profitable_before_ads": true, "missing_costs": [], "sourcing_target": null, "limitations": [ "Amounts must use the same currency and tax basis; no currency conversion was performed.", "Landed cost includes inbound freight and duties; shipping_cost is additional outbound fulfillment.", "Break-even CPA excludes fixed overhead and income tax; it is a ceiling, not a recommended ad budget." ] } } ], "response": { "kind": "answer", "message": "At €49.90 selling price and €18.75 landed cost, gross profit is €31.15 per order, a 62.42% gross margin. After €4.20 shipping, €1.55 payment fee, and €1.50 refund reserve, contribution before ads is €23.90, so your break-even CPA is €23.90. Treat that CPA as a hard ceiling for testing, not a target bid, because overhead and tax are not included.", "uncertainties": [ "This is calculated from the provided scenario, not a verified supplier quote.", "Fixed overhead and income tax are not included." ], "run_id": "66aa83c6-dae6-4efa-bdc8-bb9829afb3c0", "engine": "commerce-reasoning-v1", "evidence": [ { "id": "e2", "source": "economics", "status": "ok", "observed_at": "2026-09-05T00:00:00Z" } ] } }, { "id": "economics-09-order-budget", "passed": true, "elapsed_ms": 23309, "used_tools": [ "business", "supplier_order" ], "toolDiagnostics": [ { "tool": "business", "status": "ok", "data": { "product_count": 1, "products": [ { "id": "bottle", "name": "Insulated bottle", "build_status": "ready" } ] } }, { "tool": "supplier_order", "status": "ok", "data": { "source_quote": "Budget EUR 300. Need 20 units. Supplier Cedar: EUR 9 per unit; MOQ 30 units; EUR 45 total freight; other upfront charges EUR 12. Can I place the minimum order within my total budget? These are scenario inputs, not verified inventory. Do not place an order.", "product_id": null, "verified_stock": null, "delivery_commitment": null, "offers": [ { "supplier": "Cedar", "terms": " EUR 9 per unit; MOQ 30 units; EUR 45 total freight; other upfront charges EUR 12. Can I place the minimum order within my total budget? These are scenario inputs, not verified inventory. Do not place an order.", "currency": "EUR", "order_units": 30, "order_multiple": 1, "goods_total": 270, "known_charges_subtotal": 327, "total_upfront_cost": 327, "effective_unit_cost": 10.9, "budget_fit": "over_budget", "budget_remaining": -27, "missing_costs": [], "basis": "scenario arithmetic from supplied terms; not a verified quote, inventory reservation or profitability assessment" } ], "limitations": [ "Per-unit prices, unit minimums, explicit order multiples, total freight and total other upfront charges are supported; confirm quote validity separately.", "When no multiple is stated, the scenario assumes single-unit increments; confirm pack rules and freight at the calculated quantity before purchase.", "No tax conversion, volume discounts, percentage-based charges or split payments are calculated.", "Quote-to-product identity is not established; no order, contact or other action has been performed." ] } } ], "response": { "kind": "answer", "message": "No. Cedar's minimum is 30 units, so the minimum order is EUR 327 known upfront: EUR 270 goods, EUR 45 freight, and EUR 12 other upfront charges. That is EUR 27 over your EUR 300 budget, even before any unquoted taxes, duties, payment fees, or changed freight terms. The reversible next step is to ask Cedar for a confirmed 20-unit sample quote, or a 30-unit all-in quote at EUR 300 or less, before considering any order.", "uncertainties": [ "These are scenario inputs, not verified inventory or a binding supplier quote.", "Quote-to-product identity is not established.", "Taxes, duties, payment fees, and any unquoted charges are unknown." ], "run_id": "ac980409-6a03-4924-9d58-14f949dedb8a", "engine": "commerce-reasoning-v1", "evidence": [ { "id": "e2", "source": "supplier_order", "status": "ok", "observed_at": "2026-09-05T00:00:00Z" } ] } } ], "requests": [ { "id": "economics-04-loss", "text": "Price USD 20, landed cost USD 18, shipping USD 4, payment fee 0% plus USD 0, refund reserve 0%. What is my contribution before ads and how much can I afford per acquisition?", "prior": null, "reference": "Contribution is USD -2 per order. No positive affordable CPA or break-even ROAS exists. Losing money before advertising does not justify an ad-spend recommendation." }, { "id": "economics-06-tax-basis", "text": "Selling price EUR 60 includes VAT. Landed cost EUR 30 excludes VAT. Shipping EUR 5 excludes VAT. Payment fee 2% plus EUR 0.20, refund reserve 0%. I do not know the VAT rate or whether input VAT is recoverable. Tell me my actual profit and break-even CPA, not a hypothetical estimate.", "prior": null, "reference": "Actual profit and CPA are unknown: selling price and costs are on incompatible tax bases, and VAT rate/recoverability are missing. Ask for the relevant tax information. Do not present 23.60 as actual contribution or CPA." }, { "id": "economics-07-decimal-comma", "text": "All amounts are EUR on the same tax basis; commas are decimal separators. Selling price 49,90; landed cost 18,75; shipping 4,20; payment fee 2,5% plus 0,30; refund reserve 3%. Calculate gross profit, contribution before ads and break-even CPA. Round each monetary fee to cents, half up.", "prior": null, "reference": "Gross profit EUR 31.15; fee EUR 1.25; reserve EUR 1.50; contribution and CPA EUR 23.90. Same currency and meanings preserved. CPA is a break-even ceiling, not recommended ad spending." }, { "id": "economics-09-order-budget", "text": "Budget EUR 300. Need 20 units. Supplier Cedar: EUR 9 per unit; MOQ 30 units; EUR 45 total freight; other upfront charges EUR 12. Can I place the minimum order within my total budget? These are scenario inputs, not verified inventory. Do not place an order.", "prior": null, "reference": "30 units cost EUR 270 plus 45 freight plus 12 other charges = EUR 327, exceeding budget by EUR 27. Do not endorse ordering as within budget, claim verified inventory, or execute an order." } ] }